Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.628969e-05 0.000080 0.000094 0.000111 0.000130 0.000150 0.000173
2025-02-16 5.132468e-05 0.000069 0.000091 0.000117 0.000148 0.000182 0.000225
2025-02-23 4.165710e-05 0.000061 0.000086 0.000117 0.000155 0.000199 0.000254
2025-03-02 3.191377e-05 0.000052 0.000078 0.000112 0.000157 0.000210 0.000277
2025-03-09 2.487005e-05 0.000044 0.000071 0.000108 0.000157 0.000217 0.000295
2025-03-16 2.035643e-05 0.000040 0.000067 0.000107 0.000161 0.000230 0.000320
2025-03-23 1.706763e-05 0.000036 0.000065 0.000108 0.000167 0.000243 0.000345
2025-03-30 1.398695e-05 0.000032 0.000062 0.000107 0.000170 0.000253 0.000366
2025-04-06 1.102417e-05 0.000028 0.000057 0.000103 0.000170 0.000259 0.000382
2025-04-13 9.043222e-06 0.000026 0.000055 0.000103 0.000174 0.000270 0.000403
2025-04-20 6.673493e-06 0.000022 0.000050 0.000097 0.000170 0.000270 0.000412
2025-04-27 5.449664e-06 0.000020 0.000048 0.000097 0.000173 0.000280 0.000433
2025-05-04 4.107466e-06 0.000017 0.000045 0.000096 0.000177 0.000292 0.000458
2025-05-11 3.443809e-06 0.000016 0.000045 0.000100 0.000188 0.000314 0.000498
2025-05-18 2.698080e-06 0.000015 0.000044 0.000101 0.000194 0.000330 0.000529
2025-05-25 1.729259e-06 0.000012 0.000040 0.000096 0.000192 0.000333 0.000544
2025-06-01 1.083384e-06 0.000010 0.000036 0.000092 0.000190 0.000337 0.000559
2025-06-08 7.275010e-07 0.000009 0.000035 0.000092 0.000193 0.000348 0.000584
2025-06-15 5.008361e-07 0.000008 0.000034 0.000092 0.000198 0.000362 0.000613
2025-06-22 3.042331e-07 0.000007 0.000032 0.000091 0.000201 0.000372 0.000637
2025-06-29 1.493071e-07 0.000006 0.000029 0.000088 0.000200 0.000377 0.000653
2025-07-06 7.556326e-08 0.000005 0.000028 0.000087 0.000202 0.000387 0.000678
2025-07-13 1.800431e-08 0.000004 0.000025 0.000083 0.000198 0.000386 0.000685